If everybody had known for 5 or 10 years that oil would be near $150 a barrel, then the high cost of oil would be a lot less painful then it currently is today. People would have had a chance to improve insulation in their houses, buy smaller cars, move closer to where they work and shop, and industries would have a chance to become more efficient.

Yet, none of that has happened. Almost overnight, oil prices doubled and doubled again, leading to prices nearly 11 times higher then a decade earlier. There was no chance for people to adjust, except to take drastic measures that have proven to be unnecessarily painful. Some Americans, particularly those on limited incomes with long commutes, are forced to choose between basic necessities such as food versus getting to work. It’s a serious problem.

There is another problem, which is not as much talked about. Oil prices are unpredictable. They may go up or they may go down. Things that make sense at $150 barrel oil are considered unnecessary or even wasteful at $75 or $37 barrel oil. It might make sense to live in a distant suburb and drive a big car for commuting when oil is cheap, or to buy a hybrid and live near where you work when oil is expensive, but there is no guarantee that it will remain so high in the future.

It could be a terrible mistake to invest in buying a fuel-efficient car right now, if gas prices where to drop. You might not ever get the payback you expected, should prices drop to the $50 a barrel average that the Department of Energy is predicting for the long-range price of oil. You might get stuck with a vehicle you do not like, just to save a few bucks in the short run.